Notes on the "Surge" in Iraq

“The well-known is such because it is well-known, not known.”
- GWF Hegel

Juan Cole, “A Social History of the Surge,” Informed Comment,
http://www.juancole.com/2008/07/social-history-of-surge.html

Cole notes that there is no clear understanding of what the “surge” actually was, as there is a tendency to conflate a policy of buying-off Sunni insurgents with an escalation of US troop levels. For Cole the “surge” means the latter, while the – policy of buying of Sunni insurgents predates the troop escalation.

He also argues that claims that “the surge worked,” depend on “a possible logical fallacy: post hoc ergo propter hoc. If event X comes after event Y, it is natural to suspect that Y caused X. But it would often be a false assumption.”

In his analysis the cause of the decrease in violence in Iraq in the second part of 2007 was a consequence of Shii militias perpetrating a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Baghdad:

“My thesis would be that the US inadvertently allowed the chasing of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs out of Baghdad (and many of them had to go all the way to Syria for refuge). Rates of violence declined once the ethnic cleansing was far advanced, just because there were fewer mixed neighborhoods.”

He also notes that increasing oil revenue (oil prices peaking in July 2008 @ $145), allowed the Malaki government to strengthen it hand vis-à-vis Iraqi society.

“So did the “surge” “work”? The troop escalation in and of itself was probably not that consequential. That the troops were used in new ways by Gen. Petraeus was more important. But their main effect was ironic. They calmed Baghdad down by accidentally turning it into a Shiite city, as Shiite as Isfahan or Tehran, and thus a terrain on which the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement could not hope to fight effectively.”

A timeline of some of the important developments:

- Feb 2006 Askariya (Shi‘i shrine) bombing in Samarra
- Nov 2006 Iraq Study Report
- Jan 2007 Peak of violence in Iraq
- Jan 2007 Oil price low at $50
- Feb 2007 US troop Escalation begins
- Sep 2007 Sadr cease-fire
- July 2008 Oil prices peak at $145

Vietnam and the Willful and Systematic Deception of Public Officials

“You know, they could hang people for what’s in there”

- Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara's remark to a friend upon reading the Pentagon Papers in 1971. Quoted in Campbell Craig and Fredrik Logevall, America's Cold War: The Politics of Insecurity (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009), 244.

Gee, Bob, who do you suppose they could hang?

BAcevich interview

The Semantics of Semiwar: Andrew Bacevich Takes on American Militarism

"One of the most commonplace aspects of our politics today revolves around widely shared respect for the American soldier and, by extension, for the American military. Now, I certainly have no problem with respecting the service and sacrifice of the American soldiers. But those expressions of support create obstacles to examining seriously what our emphasis on military power has wrought and from my point of view - especially in the period since the end of the Cold War when we have, under both Democrats and Republicans, engaged in a large number of military interventions abroad - taken together, all that military activity is not making us safer, is not making us stronger, is not making us richer. Indeed, I would say that, on balance, just the opposite is the case: we are creating instability, we are inciting greater anti-Americanism and we are rapidly depleting our wealth with minimal gain in return."

Obama on Halter v. Lincoln

White House official: 'Organized labor just flushed $10 million down the toilet'

From earlier this summer:

"Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members' money down the toilet on a pointless exercise," the official said. "If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November."

The Obama admin tells organized labor to go to hell. It would rather lose with Linclon than win with Halter.

Obamas Asst Sec for Political-Military Affairs

Andrew J. Shapiro, Assistant Secretary, Political-Military Affairs, at the Saban Center, 16 July 2010

"During the past year, there has been an unprecedented reinvigoration of bilateral defense consultations through nearly continuous high-level discussions and visits. We have re-energized structured dialogues such as the U.S.-Israel Joint Political-Military Group and the Defense Policy Advisory Group, among others. I lead the U.S. government’s discussions within the Joint Political-Military Group (JPMG), which includes representatives from both the State Department and Pentagon on the U.S. side and the Foreign and Defense Ministries on the Israeli side. The JPMG discussions cover a wide range of political-military topics, including first and foremost maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge. Meanwhile, the DoD-led Defense Policy Advisory Group provides a high-level forum dedicated to enhancing defense policy coordination."

Colonial 'Femminism' in Afghanistan

Burkas and Bikinis

Time magazine's cover is the latest cynical attempt to oversimplify the reality of Afghan lives

by Priyamvada Gopal

"The mutilated Afghan woman ultimately fills a symbolic void where there should be ideas for real change. The truth is that the US and allied regimes do not have anything substantial to offer Afghanistan beyond feeding the gargantuan war machine they have unleashed.

And how could they? In the affluent west itself, modernity is now about dismantling welfare systems, increasing inequality (disproportionately disenfranchising women in the process), and subsidising corporate profits. Other ideas once associated with modernity – social justice, economic fairness, peace, all of which would enfranchise Afghan women – have been relegated to the past in the name of progress. This bankrupt version of modernity has little to offer Afghans other than bikini waxes and Oprah-imitators. A radical people's modernity is called for – and not only for the embattled denizens of Afghanistan."

Abolish the Military as an Institution?

A Queer View on Why Gays Shouldn't Serve in the Military

Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Don't Serve

By CECILIA LUCAS

" "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” is bad policy. It encourages deceit and, specifically, staying in the closet, which contributes to internalized as well as public homophobia, thus perpetuating discrimination and violence against LGBT people. Banning gay people from serving in the military, however, is something I support. Not because I’m anti-gay, nope, I’m one of those queer folks myself. I’m also a woman and would support a law against women serving in the military. Not because I think women are less capable. I would support laws against any group of people serving in the military: people of color, tall people, people between the ages of 25 and 53, white men, poor people, people who have children, people who vote for Democrats -- however you draw the boundaries of a group, I would support a law banning them from military service. Because I support outlawing the military. And until that has happened, I support downsizing it by any means necessary, including, in this one particular arena, sacrificing civil rights in the interest of human rights."