Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Juan Cole gives Obama As and Bs on foriegn policy

Obama's foreign policy report card

I don't have time to respond point by point, but here's Cole's breakdown, and general response:

On Iraq Obama gets a B, largely because "the U.S. troop withdrawal is ahead of schedule and seems unlikely to be halted.... troop levels are down to about 120,000 from 142,000 early this year, and spending on the war has fallen, from $180 billion in 2008 to $150 billion this year."

Cole doesn't indicate which schedule Obama is ahead of. During the campaign he promised to withdraw 2 brigades a month. My understanding is that a brigade is typically composed of 3,000-5,000 troops . Also, Cole doesn't mention that the Obama admin leaned on the Iraqi govt. to postpone the planned July referendum on the status of forces agreement.

On Iran Cole gives an A for relaxing the state of tensions between the 2 govts. I think that's true but at the same time Obama is still framing the issue in terms of confronting Iran over its nuclear weapons program- which according to the recent NIE is non-existent. Iran is surrounded by hostile nuclear armed states. Why is Iran's nuclear program an issue, but Israel's nuclear arsenal is not?

On Pakistan Cole gives Obama an A for 'taking the fight to the Pakistani Taliban,' he is particularly impressed by the US supported offensives in Swat and S. Waziristan. He notes that Obama's use of drones is "unpopular in some quarters," but he raises no objections. This is however, as Jane Mayer points out, illegal. How does one get on and off the CIA's assassination list.

On Afghanistan and Israel/Palestine Obama gets "incompletes." Far too generous. These have been Obama's major initiative and they have been total failures. That's like saying a business major who did great in PE, but failed to complete Econ 101, is making satisfactory progress.

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